To add to Rainer Strack’s TED presentation that I shared on Friday, here is more info on the coming $10Trillion global talent shortage crisis.
Here is the chart of projections of labor shortages in 2030 in 25 advanced economies, with two models of projections based on 10 year and 20 year trends.
If you look to the right column of the image, that is all labor shortages, and it happens pretty much everywhere in these countries.
What can we do to reduce the impact in 15 years? Per his paper,
– Boost productivity through capital investment in infrastructure, innovation, technology, and social and training programs
– Increase labor participation rate (increase retirement age, encourage more women to participate, jobs for the elderly, increasing working hours)
– Increase immigration and mobility, and cross-border talent
– Encourage higher birth rates (although that is unlikely to impact by this time)
While the paper indicates — “By 2030, most of the 25 economies in our study will face shortfalls. Thus, increasing talent mobility can be regarded as only a limited solution. ” — I think this limits thinking that only these countries can contribute talent to the global economy.
I think there’s a big underestimation of sources of talent, as well as new ways people can work across borders. Consider the new ways that we are outsourcing or crowdsourcing work over the Net. Also consider how we are time-slicing more work, and adding more context to the skills and expertise needed (and available). It is the state of multi-employment coming to be.
Global Workforce Crisis — by BCG (Pinterest – Work Ethos)
“bcg.perspectives – The Global Workforce Crisis: $10 Trillion at Risk“